Nationwide, presidential election turnout was about 7 percentage points higher than in , regardless of which of three different turnout metrics we looked at: the estimated voting-age population as of July 1, that estimate adjusted to Nov.
Based on these measures, turnout was the highest since at least , the earliest year in our analysis, and possibly much longer. But another big factor was the dramatic steps many states took to expand mail balloting and early voting because of the COVID pandemic. Six of those states had recently adopted all-mail voting, either permanently Utah and Hawaii or for the elections only California, New Jersey, Vermont and most of Montana.
The past two months have been among the most turbulent post-election periods in American history, with unfounded but constantly repeated claims of voting fraud culminating in the Jan. Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters.
Given the continuing divides over the presidential election, we wanted to put the actual, verified turnout into some broader context. Measuring U. There is no central registry of eligible voters, no uniform rules for keeping registrations current, and no requirement to report vote totals in a consistent way. All of which means that calculating turnout rates inevitably involves judgment calls — both in choosing which votes to include the numerator and the population against which to compare them the denominator.
For this post, we originally wanted to base our analysis on total ballots counted, a metric that includes all ballots regardless of offices voted for.
But not all states have reported total-ballots data, so we turned our attention to the presidential race, which nearly always is the one that attracts the most votes. And while the But why was it not even higher? The percentage of those voting for the Republican presidential ticket dropped by 1. But we failed to realize that the registration increase was driven by Democratic and independent registration and that the long lines at the polls were mostly populated by Democrats.
McDonald, Michael. The Obama campaign invested heavily in early voting, and it appeared to be the difference in several states, though many of those people might have eventually voted on Election Day. Voter turnout increased substantially in newly competitive states such as Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina, which all went for Mr. Obama after decades of favoring Republican presidential candidates. Turnout also increased in some Republican states with large black populations, such as Mississippi, South Carolina and Georgia.
North Carolina, which had competitive elections for president, governor and Senate, had the biggest increase in turnout, from Obama won North Carolina by 14, votes, out of more than 4. Beverly Perdue was elected the state's first female governor. Minnesota, with a competitive Senate race that still hasn't been decided, had the highest turnout rate, even though it dropped slightly, to West Virginia and Hawaii tied for the lowest turnout rate, at There were only two states that increased their turnout in compared with — Louisiana which increased its turnout by.
Excepting the states which are still counting large numbers ballots, those whose rates declined most were New York minus 21 percentage points and New Jersey minus Other states whose turnout rates dropped sharply were Maine minus 8.
Democratic turnout also increased in only two states and the same states—Louisiana up. Republican turnout increased in 15 states led by North Dakota up 2. The largest decreases were in Indiana minus 5. That question will likely be answered by the midterm election and the presidential election. This brings the total of the states that have reported registration to 37 and the states with partisan registration to
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